Boston-area winter temperatures rank coldest since the mid-1990s as Monday snow chances remain uncertain

A colder-than-normal pattern has dominated much of the East

Boston and much of Southern New England have spent this winter in a prolonged cold stretch that has pushed seasonal averages to their lowest levels in decades. Regional climate tracking through mid-February shows temperatures running well below the long-term norm, with repeated intrusions of Arctic air and fewer of the brief warmups that have characterized many recent winters.

Across the broader eastern United States, the pattern has been consistent: persistent cold has extended from the Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, contributing to widespread ice cover on lakes and rivers and setting the stage for wintry precipitation when storm systems align with available moisture.

Boston’s cold has been driven by duration, not single-day records

Meteorological data for the Boston area indicate that the defining feature of this season has been how long cold air has remained in place. The region has logged extended runs of sub-freezing temperatures, with late January into early February producing one of the longest such stretches in recent years. While the city has not approached all-time cold records, the cumulative effect has been a winter that ranks among the coldest starts in decades when measured by average temperature.

Forecasters note that even modest warmups can feel dramatic after weeks of below-normal readings. In practical terms, that means brief thaws have had limited ability to reduce snow and ice cover, and nighttime refreezing has remained a recurring hazard for roads and sidewalks.

Monday’s snow potential hinges on storm track and temperature profiles

Attention has now turned to a coastal system expected to approach the East Coast late Sunday into Monday. Forecast guidance has converged on two primary outcomes: a track closer to Southern New England that would raise the likelihood of accumulating snow, or a more offshore path that would keep totals limited and confine the most organized precipitation to areas south and east of the region.

Because the atmosphere may be marginally warmer than during recent Arctic-dominated periods, precipitation type will also matter. Even small differences in surface temperature and the depth of warm air aloft could determine whether communities see predominantly snow, a snow-to-rain mix, or lighter, intermittent snow showers.

What residents should monitor through the weekend

• Storm track updates, especially any northward shift that would increase snowfall risk.
• Temperature trends near the coast, where ocean influence can change precipitation type quickly.
• Timing of the coldest air relative to the heaviest precipitation, which often controls snow totals.
• Wind and coastal impacts, including the potential for reduced visibility and localized flooding in vulnerable shoreline areas.

With a cold baseline in place, small forecast changes can have outsized effects on Monday outcomes—turning a light event into a plowable snowfall, or limiting impacts to a brief coating and slick travel.

Outlook: cold remains the primary signal, with snow opportunities continuing

Even if Monday’s system tracks offshore, the larger pattern favors continued winter weather risk through the remainder of February. With the region already operating in a colder-than-normal regime, future storms will have an easier time producing snow than they would during a milder winter—keeping the focus on timing, storm intensity, and track as the key variables in the weeks ahead.